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DECC has published the fifth quarterly forecast for the non-domestic scheme along with an updated version of their non-domestic degression factsheet in order to prepare for changes that are being introduced to degression. Crucially for Scottish Land & Estates’ members the small biomass tariff will be reduced by 5% from 1st July 2014.
The total forecast expenditure for the scheme is £106.6 million. The total estimated expenditure represents the amount DECC anticipate they will pay out between 30 April 2014 and 29 April 2015, based on current application data. The total forecast expenditure exceeds the 50% threshold which can and has triggered a tariff reduction (as set out in regulations):
- The “50% trigger” for the scheme as a whole as at 30 April is £96.4m
- The “100% trigger” for the scheme as a whole as at 30 April is £192.8m.
Since the last quarterly announcement (published 28 February 2014), the total forecast expenditure estimate has been increasing at a higher rate than previously seen, with the average monthly growth almost tripling. This is due to an increase in applications and load factors.
As at 30 April 2014, only one technology tariff has exceeded its individual trigger:
- Forecast spend over the next 12 months for small commercial biomass is £58.4m. This is £24.4m over its individual technology trigger.
- Forecast spend for all other tariff categories shows these are below their individual tariff triggers for this quarter.
As small biomass has exceeded its individual trigger and the 50% total scheme trigger has also now been breached.